2009 Predictions - AL East

Starting today, we will look and the upcoming Major League baseball season. I will go division by division, looking at each team based on their 2008 finish. At the end I will give my thoughts on how they will finish and who will be the Wild Card. Please keep in mind that not all free agents have been signed and there are sure to be trades between now and the beginning of the regular season.

AL EAST


TAMPA BAY RAYS (2008 record 97-65)

Key Additions: OF Pat Burrell, RP Joe Nelson
Key Losses: OF Rocco Baldelli, RP Trever Miller
Unsigned Free Agents: DH Cliff Floyd, DH Jonny Gomes, OF Eric Hinske

This team looks almost the same as the 2008 version that went to the World Series. If they do not add a big bat to replace Cliff Floyd, look for Burrell to be the DH. There are still options available in free agency to fill the role like Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, and Bobby Abreu. Given the Rays success by NOT signing the big free agent, I would bet on Burrell and the rest of the youngsters to do it on their own. Add the phenom David Price to the starting rotation and there is no reason that Tampa cannot stay on top of arguably the toughest division in baseball.

BOSTON RED SOX (2008 record 95-67)

Key Additions: OF Rocco Baldelli, SP Brad Penny, SP John Smoltz, RP Takashi Saito
Key Losses: C David Ross, OF Coco Crisp
Unsigned Free Agents: SP Paul Byrd, 1B Sean Casey, SP Bartolo Colon, SS Alex Cora, SP Curt Schilling, RF Mike Timlin, C Jason Varitek

The Red Sox did not finish second to Tampa Bay for lack of talent. The upstart Rays just plan outplayed the 2007 World Series Champions. With the signings of Penny and Smoltz, the Sox solidified their rotation, but didn't necessarily make it better by leaps and bounds. What will take Boston back to the top of the division will be better production from the core of the team and for the team to play with more heart. I like the intensity of closer Jonatahan Papelbon, the consistency of Kevin Youkilis, and the overall play of reigning AL MVP Dustin Pedroia. However, if Boston doesn't re-sign the heart and soul of this team, Jason Varitek, all the talent in the world won't help this team overtake supremacy of the East.

NEW YORK YANKEES (2008 record 89-73)

Key Additions: SP CC Sabathia, SP AJ Burnett, OF Nick Swisher, 1B Mark Teixeira
Key Losses: 1B Jason Giambi, SP Carl Pavano, SP Wilson Betemit, SP Jeff Marquez
Unsigned Free Agents: OF Bobby Abreu, RP Chris Britton, OF Justin Christen, C Chad Moeller
SP Andy Pettitte, SP Sidney Ponson, C Ivan Rodriguez

It looks like the days of the Yankees just throwing money at their problems are back in full force. The signings of Sabathia and Burnett look to have helped improve the biggest weakness in the Bronx by helping the rotation. But Burnett may be a one year wonder after finally having a season worthy of his hype in 2008. With the back end of the rotation still looking at using much heralded, but rarely successful, Phil Hughes, the Yanks had better hope that CC can win about 35 of his 40 starts (we all know he can do it if he wants) in order to erase the disappointment of missing the playoffs last year. This offense, with and focused A-Rod and Jeter coupled with the addition of Teixeria's big bat, looks like it could average 10 runs a game. And it may need to if the pitching doesn't live up to the expectations.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS (2008 record 86-76)

Key Additions: none
Key Losses: SP AJ Burnett
Unsigned Free Agents: SP John Parrish, OF Brad Wilkerson, C Gregg Zahn

For a team the finished in fourth place in 2008, one would think they would try to improve themselves in order to compete with the Rays, Sox, and Yanks. So far, the only big off season move made by the Blue Jays is not re-signing Burnett and watching on as he went to division rival New York. There are still a handful of free agents available that may help this team improve, but none that will vault them into contention right away. You can always count on pitching ace Roy Halladay winning 20 games and being in the conversation for the Cy Young award, and for the other pitchers to make fans wonder when Halladay's next start is. Last year's signing of BJ Ryan gave the Blue Jays a credible closer, but no one other than Halladay seems to be able to have a lead late enough in the game to use him (and Halladay likes to finish what he starts, so he doesn't use Ryan very often). Unless Toronto has a minor league stockpile of prospects ready to make an immediate impact, I don't see this group of birds flying any higher in 2009.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES (2008 record 68-93)

Key Additions: SP Mark Hendrickson, IF Cesar Izturis, IF/OF Ryan Freel, SP Koji Uehara
Key Losses: SP Daniel Cabrera, C Ramon Hernandez, C Lou Palmisano
Unsigned Free Agents: SS Alex Cintron, RP Lance Cormier, 1B Kevin Millar, OF Jay Payton

What we have here is a failure to improve quickly. The two biggest holes in the lineup from 2008 were at shortstop and in the starting rotation. The signing of Izturis will solidify the most glamorous spot in the infield for the O's. Freel is the type of hard worker that every young player on this team can look at to see how you are suppose to play the game, and he can play any where on the field or bat anywhere in the lineup and make this team better. And while Uehara is an unproven commodity in America, it looks to be a step in the right direction for a staff that had four of five starters with ERAs over 5.00 last season. So even though it seems that Baltimore has been rebuilding since Eddie Murruy, Cal Ripken Jr and Jim Palmer were leading them to the World Series title in 1983, this group is young and getting better, however is still probably a few years away from scaring any other team in the division.

My Prediction for 2009

1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. New York Yankees
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Toronto Blue Jays