Once again the common school of thought is that the SEC by far is the class of college football this year. While there is no denying the success of Florida, Alabama, and LSU, it does not seem fair to the write off the rest of the nation based on the top quarter of one conference.
There are a lot of fans that think the national championship will be decided in Atlanta disguised as the SEC Championship. Although recent success may warrant that thought, don't forget that in the first seven years of the BCS, six different conferences won the title. This shows that anyone can be beat in any given year.
While the SEC has three teams ranked in the top ten, they are also the only SEC teams ranked in the entire top 25. If you look at the current BCS rankings as a whole by conference, the rest of the nation stacks up favorably to the mighty SEC.
The SEC has 3 of 12 teams ranked for 25%, Big 12 has 2 of 12 for 17%, Pac 10 has 4 of 10 for 40%, Big Ten has 4 of 11 for 36%, ACC has 3 of 12 for 25%, Big East has 4 of 8 for 50%, and Mountain West has 3 of 9 teams ranked for 33%. Conference USA and the WAC have one team each with Houston and Boise State receptively.
It is hard to compare each conference without more games against each other, but some like to look at last year's bowl standings. The SEC went 6-2, including the National Championship game. The Big 12 was suppose to be the next best conference, but the SEC was 2-0 head to head with Florida beating Oklahoma and Ole Miss beating an 11-1 Texas Tech.
However, the Pac 10 went undefeated, albeit with no games against the SEC. The Big 12 and Conference USA both went 4-2.
Also, the SEC's two loses were against teams from the Big Ten and the Mountain West. These are typically conferences that most of the nation look down upon.
Using just the bowl records still does not give the SEC the overwhelming dominance that most are thrusting upon them.
With that being said, it is still easy to see why the SEC gets so much praise. They currently have the top two teams in the polls. They also have the number nine team, who has only lost to those top two teams.
They have won the the last three national championships, and four of the last six. They have a 19-7 bowl record over the last three years.
There are other teams outside of the SEC that deserve a look as well. Texas looks like a lock for the other spot in the BCS title game against the SEC champion. Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State should all finish the season undefeated and will all have a case for being considered should Texas stumble.
With each having four teams ranked, the Big East, the Big Ten, and the Pac 10 all have the opportunity to prove themselves this bowl season. While these conferences may be matched up against each other in several games, they should each get a few shots at knocking a little luster off the SEC's shine.
So while the SEC rules the roost at the top, the rest of the nation could have an argument for being just as good, if not better, top to bottom based on the overall rankings and last years bowl performances.
Feel free to heap all the accolades you want on the SEC, they have earned it. But don't overlook the rest of the nation. There are teams and conferences out there that are better than most give them credit for.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Cincinncai Bearcats vs USC Trojans - Who Should Be Ranked Higher?
With the BCS standings in their second week, a lot of the focus is on who deserves to be ranked where and how things may shake out by the end of the regular season.
One of the most intriguing arguments is pairing the résumés of the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Southern Cal Trojans.
While most in the media are giving USC the usual rub, is it really fair to write off the chances of the defending Big East champions?
It is easy to automatically give the edge to USC based solely on their storied history. Just look at Pete Carroll's winning percentage, the number of BCS bowls they have been to, and the number of NFL players that have come from the school. Clearly they are the better program in terms of national relevance.
Cincinnati has only had three 10-win seasons in the history of the program. Just last season they made it to their first ever BCS bowl game. This is a team that since its inception in 1885 has fewer conference championships (10) than USC has national titles (11). It is no wonder that the Bearcats seem to be getting little respect from the national media.
Right now, most in the media, as well as the supposed BCS experts, say that if both teams win out that USC will be ranked higher come season's end. Should the right circumstances present themselves, an 11-1 USC would play for a national championship while a 12-0 Cincinnati would be on the outside looking in.
The overall strength of schedule seems to favor the Trojans. Seven games into the season, USC looks to have played the better competition. USC's opponents played have a combined record of 25-25 while Cincinnati opponents are 21-29.
The Bearcats also look to be on the short end in looking at the end of the schedule as well. The remaining teams on UC's docket are 21-15. The rest of USC's opponents are 25-13.
USC has already played three teams that were ranked at the time they played. Cincinnati only boasts one victory against a ranked opponent. Each has two games left against currently ranked teams.
If you look at both conferences, it looks like a dead heat. Both the Pac-10 and the Big East currently have three ranked teams in the AP poll. They also each have one team in the "Others Receiving Votes" category.
The Big East, while looked on like a dirty stepchild to the rest of the BCS conferences, looks to have the better record out of conferences. The Pac-10 has a good record against the rest, going 20-8. The Big East, having more games against non-conference teams, are 28-8.
The two teams have one common opponent in Oregon State. USC won 42-36 at home in a game that the Beavers had a very good chance of pulling the upset late in the fourth quarter. Cincinnati played at Corvallis and came away with a more convincing victory, by the score of 28-18.
Both teams have had to play without their starting quarterbacks. USC went on the road to Washington with freshman sensation Matt Barkley on the sidelines. That didn't work out so well for the Men of Troy, falling to the Huskies 16-13.
Cincinnati welcomed Louisville with possible Heisman candidate Tony Pike nursing a shifted plate in his non-throwing wrist. The Bearcats won in a rout 41-10.
There are good points on both sides for who should have the better number in front of their name on the ticker each week. Ultimately, this will most likely be settled by the uninformed voters of the Coaches' Poll and the computer rankings. While USC will most likely benefit from their name value, Cincinnati is proving that this year they belong in the conversation with the nation's elite.
It would be a shame if an undefeated team from a BCS conference gets left out of a possible title game opportunity because of the perception of their league is lower than the reputation of a one-loss team. I guess this is the kind of situation that will bring up playoff over BCS talk again, but that is a rant for another day.
Monday, October 5, 2009
Gogoplata for Gold: Olympic MMA in Rio 2016
With all the attention this last week given to who will host the 2016 Olympics, which was won by the Brazilian city of Rio De Janeiro, one of my friends asked me what I thought about MMA making its debut at the the Games. There are several good points on both sides of the argument. Although I personally don't see it happening, it is a topic that should make for some great debates.
One of the best reasons in favor of adding MMA is it's growing popularity. Even though the Olympics bring out nationalism and patriotism amongst all countries across the world, the overall importance of the Games has been waning over the years. Sure there are some sports that garner more attention, such as basketball, soccer, gymnastics, swimming, track and field, and volleyball. However, bringing in the demographic that drives MMA cannot hurt. Bringing in viewers that may stay to watch other sports can only help the viewership.
There are also other combat sports already a part of the Olympics. Boxing, wrestling, fencing, and Taekwondo are all currently being contested. Karate was brought up as a possible addition but did not receive enough votes. Since most of these, except for fencing, are part of Mixed Martial Arts, it makes sense that adding MMA would be a natural progression.
With the growth of Mixed Martial Arts not only in the United States, but worldwide, this is becoming more of a global force. From organizations like Dream and Sengoku to Strikeforce and the UFC, there are fighters from six different continents represented. With that kind of widespread participation, it only makes sense to put this sport on the type of stage that only the Olympics can provide.
Let us not forget that the Olympics are being held in Brazil. Even the casual fan can tell you that submission specialists rely on Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Royce Gracie introduced the MMA world to this art all the way back at the first UFC event. With as heavily ingrained in the sport as BJJ is, what better place than Rio to add the sport that highlights it on a fight to fight basis.
With all that being said, there are just as many reasons why the Olympics will not consider adding MMA anytime soon. The first of which is the divide on whether MMA should be a legitimate sport or not. There are still athletic commissions in the US alone that will still not sanction it as a sport. Whether it is due to a fundamental lack of understanding of the evolution of MMA or just blind hatred of what some deem as "senseless brutality", there is not a clear consensus on the feelings towards legalization in this country let alone the world.
To give this argument against MMA some support, all one has to do is look at another sport that has tried for years to become an Olympic sport, bowling. One of the biggest knocks against adding bowling was the lack of a single governing body. Until 2005, bowling in the US was overseen by the American Bowling Congress, the Women's International Bowling Congress, the Young American Bowling Alliance, and USA Bowling. Since there were four different groups responsible for the rules and regulations in America alone, there could be no clear choice on who would submit the guidelines for running an Olympic event. On top of that, we haven't even mentioned ruling bodies from all the other nations worldwide.
This could be a similar hurdle for MMA. Since different states have different rules, as well as regulatory variations country bu country, who will set the standard. There are a lot of key rules that would have to be addressed. Will it be contested in a ring or a cage, are elbows on the ground legal or illegal, what is the rule about attacking a downed opponent's head? And we haven't even brought up weight classes.
Another knock is the general newness of the sport. While the UFC has grown exponentially over the years, MMA in general has not had the needed time to grow on an international scale in terms of its amateur ranks. Since I cannot see any established organization, like the ones previously mentioned, letting their best fighters and champions participate and possibly get hurt or embarrassed by representatives of rival companies, the Olympians would need to be made up of non-professionals. While countries like the US, Japan, possibly Canada, and a very select few European and Asian countries may have some sort of amateur programs, there does not seem to be the global support needed to adequately supply this type of an event.
As nice as it would be to hear an announcer the caliber of Bob Costas say, "And later tonight, we will talk with the young man who won his gold medal buy way of a D'Arce Choke," it is not going to happen anytime soon. With more mainstream sports like softball and golf still on the outside looking in, MMA cannot even get in on the conversation. I am not even sure that a BJ Penn rear naked choke, Anderson Silva's knee strikes, or some Georges St. Pierre ground and pound could make the IOC submit to this idea.
One of the best reasons in favor of adding MMA is it's growing popularity. Even though the Olympics bring out nationalism and patriotism amongst all countries across the world, the overall importance of the Games has been waning over the years. Sure there are some sports that garner more attention, such as basketball, soccer, gymnastics, swimming, track and field, and volleyball. However, bringing in the demographic that drives MMA cannot hurt. Bringing in viewers that may stay to watch other sports can only help the viewership.
There are also other combat sports already a part of the Olympics. Boxing, wrestling, fencing, and Taekwondo are all currently being contested. Karate was brought up as a possible addition but did not receive enough votes. Since most of these, except for fencing, are part of Mixed Martial Arts, it makes sense that adding MMA would be a natural progression.
With the growth of Mixed Martial Arts not only in the United States, but worldwide, this is becoming more of a global force. From organizations like Dream and Sengoku to Strikeforce and the UFC, there are fighters from six different continents represented. With that kind of widespread participation, it only makes sense to put this sport on the type of stage that only the Olympics can provide.
Let us not forget that the Olympics are being held in Brazil. Even the casual fan can tell you that submission specialists rely on Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Royce Gracie introduced the MMA world to this art all the way back at the first UFC event. With as heavily ingrained in the sport as BJJ is, what better place than Rio to add the sport that highlights it on a fight to fight basis.
With all that being said, there are just as many reasons why the Olympics will not consider adding MMA anytime soon. The first of which is the divide on whether MMA should be a legitimate sport or not. There are still athletic commissions in the US alone that will still not sanction it as a sport. Whether it is due to a fundamental lack of understanding of the evolution of MMA or just blind hatred of what some deem as "senseless brutality", there is not a clear consensus on the feelings towards legalization in this country let alone the world.
To give this argument against MMA some support, all one has to do is look at another sport that has tried for years to become an Olympic sport, bowling. One of the biggest knocks against adding bowling was the lack of a single governing body. Until 2005, bowling in the US was overseen by the American Bowling Congress, the Women's International Bowling Congress, the Young American Bowling Alliance, and USA Bowling. Since there were four different groups responsible for the rules and regulations in America alone, there could be no clear choice on who would submit the guidelines for running an Olympic event. On top of that, we haven't even mentioned ruling bodies from all the other nations worldwide.
This could be a similar hurdle for MMA. Since different states have different rules, as well as regulatory variations country bu country, who will set the standard. There are a lot of key rules that would have to be addressed. Will it be contested in a ring or a cage, are elbows on the ground legal or illegal, what is the rule about attacking a downed opponent's head? And we haven't even brought up weight classes.
Another knock is the general newness of the sport. While the UFC has grown exponentially over the years, MMA in general has not had the needed time to grow on an international scale in terms of its amateur ranks. Since I cannot see any established organization, like the ones previously mentioned, letting their best fighters and champions participate and possibly get hurt or embarrassed by representatives of rival companies, the Olympians would need to be made up of non-professionals. While countries like the US, Japan, possibly Canada, and a very select few European and Asian countries may have some sort of amateur programs, there does not seem to be the global support needed to adequately supply this type of an event.
As nice as it would be to hear an announcer the caliber of Bob Costas say, "And later tonight, we will talk with the young man who won his gold medal buy way of a D'Arce Choke," it is not going to happen anytime soon. With more mainstream sports like softball and golf still on the outside looking in, MMA cannot even get in on the conversation. I am not even sure that a BJ Penn rear naked choke, Anderson Silva's knee strikes, or some Georges St. Pierre ground and pound could make the IOC submit to this idea.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Spiked Big Blue Kool-Aid: Kentucky Wildcats Fan's Optimism Crossing the Line After Beating In State Rival Louisville Cardinals
Let me start out by saying that I am a former student of the University of Kentucky and would like nothing more than for them to win every game in every sport, especially football (unless they play my beloved Ohio State Buckeyes). But when a team that had been a perennial doormat in the SEC East all of a sudden becomes a respectable team by going to three straight bowl games, it is natural for expectations to be elevated.
The problem becomes that while seeing the team continue to improve over the last few years, the view of those expectations can become skewed. There is a fine line between being a fan with high hopes about the potential of this year's team and being totally delusional to the state of the Wildcats compared to the rest of the other teams in not only the SEC but in all of the FBS.
Here are a few quotes I have seen online and on the local news broadcasts after the 31-27 win over Louisville:
"After today's game, the rest of the nation needs to look out because we proved we are a Top 10 team."
"The Wildcats are now a legitimate SEC contender."
"UK showed that they belong in the conversation with the elite of the SEC."
"After seeing how Florida struggled with Tennessee, Kentucky's win over Louisville proves that the Gators may be in trouble next week."
While all of these are meant with the best of intentions and show how deep the love is of the fans, I don't think that Kentucky's 2-0 record warrants a total overhaul of the SEC football pecking order just yet. Beating two teams that you are suppose to beat does not a automatically make one a Juggernaut.
Kentucky beat a Miami, OH team that lost its first two games by a combined 90-0, and didn't score its first points until the third quarter of their third game. The RedHawks still lost that third game 48-26 after the other team called off the dogs in the fourth quarter. Doesn't make UK's rout on a neutral field look as impressive as it once did.
The Wildcats then struggled at home to hold off a very game Louisville team for the Commonwealth Cup. This is the same Cardinals team that was picked to finish seventh in a less than stellar Big East. Hard to see how barely beating a freshman quarterback lead team that is suppose to finish second to last in their own conference can elicit such thoughts of greatness.
If you look at Kentucky's next four games, there are rough waters ahead. Up next is #1 Florida followed by #4 Alabama, both of whom will came to Lexington. After that, the Cats go on a two game road trip to face the Steve Spurrier coached South Carolina Gamecocks and then to battle the much improved Auburn Tigers that currently have a record of 3-0. It is a a very real possibility that they could be 2-4 after this stretch, leaving the Big Blue Nation to wonder what happened to that supposed great start.
The fans need to listen to the cliches that most coaches and players spew in just about every interview, you need to focus on the next game and don't worry about the rankings or the rest of the season. Top ranked Florida coming to town next week is a daunting task in and of itself. There are a lot more pressing matters to worry about than the national perception or the votes of the pollsters.
Worry about the defense and its poor tackling effort against the Cards.
Worry about taking care of the ball after a three turnover quarter.
Worry about a game plan to slow down Tim Tebow.
Worry about how to keep the offense moving and putting points on the board against the Gators.
The Wildcat should win the four games following the tilt against the Tigers. Even if they don't pull out another victory until they face Louisiana-Monroe, they should be bowl eligible at 6-4 going into the final games against Georgia and Tennessee. So even if they don't live up to the hype and praise being heaped on them after their 2-0 start, it looks like Head Coach Rich Brooks should be poised to take this team to an unprecedented fourth consecutive bowl game.
If Kentucky comes out a plays up to their potential, they can be a handful for anyone in the SEC, even Florida. However, the fans need to realize not only how good their beloved Big Blue can be, but realize how good their opponents are as well. It may not be politically correct in Lexington to say that UK may not quite be ready to take over as the top dog just yet, but there is still more to prove.
I just hope that Big Blue Nation can take a deep breath and be happy with this team, no matter how things turn out over the rest of the season. As much as I would like to see an undefeated season, I can take a step back at see what the Cats are truly up against and know it is unlikely. It will take winning a few of these next four games will go a long towards making UK look like the team that these fans are gushing about. Should Kentucky end up 5-1 or even 6-0 at the conclusion of the Auburn game, I will gladly order a jug of that Big Blue Kool-Aid.
The problem becomes that while seeing the team continue to improve over the last few years, the view of those expectations can become skewed. There is a fine line between being a fan with high hopes about the potential of this year's team and being totally delusional to the state of the Wildcats compared to the rest of the other teams in not only the SEC but in all of the FBS.
Here are a few quotes I have seen online and on the local news broadcasts after the 31-27 win over Louisville:
"After today's game, the rest of the nation needs to look out because we proved we are a Top 10 team."
"The Wildcats are now a legitimate SEC contender."
"UK showed that they belong in the conversation with the elite of the SEC."
"After seeing how Florida struggled with Tennessee, Kentucky's win over Louisville proves that the Gators may be in trouble next week."
While all of these are meant with the best of intentions and show how deep the love is of the fans, I don't think that Kentucky's 2-0 record warrants a total overhaul of the SEC football pecking order just yet. Beating two teams that you are suppose to beat does not a automatically make one a Juggernaut.
Kentucky beat a Miami, OH team that lost its first two games by a combined 90-0, and didn't score its first points until the third quarter of their third game. The RedHawks still lost that third game 48-26 after the other team called off the dogs in the fourth quarter. Doesn't make UK's rout on a neutral field look as impressive as it once did.
The Wildcats then struggled at home to hold off a very game Louisville team for the Commonwealth Cup. This is the same Cardinals team that was picked to finish seventh in a less than stellar Big East. Hard to see how barely beating a freshman quarterback lead team that is suppose to finish second to last in their own conference can elicit such thoughts of greatness.
If you look at Kentucky's next four games, there are rough waters ahead. Up next is #1 Florida followed by #4 Alabama, both of whom will came to Lexington. After that, the Cats go on a two game road trip to face the Steve Spurrier coached South Carolina Gamecocks and then to battle the much improved Auburn Tigers that currently have a record of 3-0. It is a a very real possibility that they could be 2-4 after this stretch, leaving the Big Blue Nation to wonder what happened to that supposed great start.
The fans need to listen to the cliches that most coaches and players spew in just about every interview, you need to focus on the next game and don't worry about the rankings or the rest of the season. Top ranked Florida coming to town next week is a daunting task in and of itself. There are a lot more pressing matters to worry about than the national perception or the votes of the pollsters.
Worry about the defense and its poor tackling effort against the Cards.
Worry about taking care of the ball after a three turnover quarter.
Worry about a game plan to slow down Tim Tebow.
Worry about how to keep the offense moving and putting points on the board against the Gators.
The Wildcat should win the four games following the tilt against the Tigers. Even if they don't pull out another victory until they face Louisiana-Monroe, they should be bowl eligible at 6-4 going into the final games against Georgia and Tennessee. So even if they don't live up to the hype and praise being heaped on them after their 2-0 start, it looks like Head Coach Rich Brooks should be poised to take this team to an unprecedented fourth consecutive bowl game.
If Kentucky comes out a plays up to their potential, they can be a handful for anyone in the SEC, even Florida. However, the fans need to realize not only how good their beloved Big Blue can be, but realize how good their opponents are as well. It may not be politically correct in Lexington to say that UK may not quite be ready to take over as the top dog just yet, but there is still more to prove.
I just hope that Big Blue Nation can take a deep breath and be happy with this team, no matter how things turn out over the rest of the season. As much as I would like to see an undefeated season, I can take a step back at see what the Cats are truly up against and know it is unlikely. It will take winning a few of these next four games will go a long towards making UK look like the team that these fans are gushing about. Should Kentucky end up 5-1 or even 6-0 at the conclusion of the Auburn game, I will gladly order a jug of that Big Blue Kool-Aid.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
UFC 103 Franklin vs Belfort: Main Event Breakdown
At this Saturday's UFC 103, former UFC Middleweight champion Rich "Ace" Franklin will welcome the returning former UFC Light Heavyweight champion and UFC 12 Heavyweight tournament winner "The Phenom" Vitor Belfort back to the Octagon. Even though this will be contested at a catch-weight, this bout should have huge implications on how each fighter fits into their respective weight's title pictures.
Franklin, coming off a victory over Wanderlei Silva, had recently been attempting to work his way up the ladder at 205 lbs until agreeing to his last two fights at 195. Belfort, who has not fought in the UFC since losing a split decision to Tito Ortiz in February 2005, has been tear since dropping to 185 and looks to be on the fast track for a title shot versus Anderson Silva.
Styles make fights, so here is how I see these two stacking up against each other in several aspects of the match up:
Stand-up Game
Rich Franklin was known for having some of the best stand up in the middleweight division, until his two losses to Anderson Silva. Of his last 12 victories, wight have been by knockout or technical knockout. Although he doesn't seem to have one punch knockout power, his striking accuracy and the way he uses his punched to control the fight is what has made him one of the best fighters in the world.
Vitor Belfort may have the fastest hands in the division. His striking always seems to come with bad intentions. Even though it has been over eight years, Belfort had the power to overwhelm heavyweights with ease. Although he may have lost some power over the years due to the dropping in weight classes, he still has plenty of dynamite inside those five ounce gloves.
Franklin seems to have trouble with faster opponents, but does well to keep shorter fighters at bay with his reach. Belfort doesn't care what size you are, but working your stand-up in the octagon is different than the ring. I give a razor thin edge to Franklin.
Ground Game
Franklin only has one submission win in his last 12 fights, although he does have good ground and pound. Belfort also only has one submission victory's ground and pound is as good as Franklin's, but The Phenom is a Gracie Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and was an amateur BJJ champion. So although the GnP is a push, the BJJ gives the nod to Belfort.
Big Fight Experience
Belfort has fought some of the biggest names in MMA. His previous opponents include Chuck Liddell, Alistair Overeem, Tito Ortiz, and Randy Couture to name a few. Unfortunately, most of those fights took place prior to 2006.
Franklin has had almost nothing but big fights since his victory over Ken Shamrock in April 2005. That is what happens when you become the Middleweight Kingpin in the UFC.
The only common opponent they have in the last five years is Dan Henderson. Belfort lost by unanimous decision while Franklin dropped a split decision that really could have gone either way.
No disrespect meant to Terry Martin and Matt Lindland, but Belfort has not had to fight Anderson Silva twice, Wanderlei Silva, Travis Lutter, and Yushin Okami all in the UFC. Edge goes to Franklin.
Prediction
This may be one of the closest contested non-title main events in quite some time. Both have a lot to shoot for, and could lose ground in the pecking order with a bad performance.
Franklin typically is the bigger, stronger fighter when fighting at middleweight. He seemed to have that advantage over Wanderlei, but that was Wandy's first time cutting that low. Belfort has fought has high as heavyweight in the past, and his last two fights were at 185, so the cut won't affect his power and cardio.
When Belfort in mentally right going into a fight, he usually has the goods to out think his prey. However, hunting the former 185 champion is a whole different animal since Franklin knows how to game plan as well as anyone having to do so for multiple title fights.
Rich Franklin has the championship pedigree, the octagon experience, and the skills to beat almost anyone at either 185 or 205. However he seems to struggle some with fighters that push the pace and that he can't out muscle. Not only will Belfort push the pace, but his power may be more than Franklin is bargaining for. I do think that both guys possess what it takes to win, but I will go with Vitor Belfort by 2nd round TKO.
Monday, July 27, 2009
2009 Kentucky Football Preview - Can The Wildcats Continue to Improve?
For the first time since the early 1950's, the University of Kentucky Wildcats have won three straight bowl games. The once "on the hot seat" head coach Rich Brooks has instilled a new attitude into the team and the fan base, making all who will listen believe he can keep this winning momentum going for years to come.
This year may be the toughest campaign for the Cats in quite a few years. With several key players gone from last year's Liberty Bowl winning team, and the rest of the Southeastern Conference stacked from top to bottom again, it will be interesting to see how the returning starters and new role players will step up to the challenge.
Whether it be the offense, the defense, or special teams, each squad has their own set of obstacles and difficulties to overcome for this season.
Offense - In order for this team to thrive in the cutthroat SEC East, Kentucky will have to get much better production from the quarterback position. Mike Hartline is the returning starter, but will have to show better leadership in the huddle and be more consistent with his passes and decision making. If these things don't improve, then the Junior incumbent will be constantly looking over his shoulder at a trio of inexperienced, yet talented, backups just waiting for their chance. Will Fidler looked good in the spring practices while leading his team to the win in the Blue-White game. Incoming Freshmen Ryan Mossakowski and Morgan Newton come in highly rated nationally and will be eager to show what they can do.
Even with the loss of Tony Dixon, the Kentucky backfield still looks to be in decent shape. Moncell Allen and Alfonso Smith seem to be leading the charge early in the off season. Derrick Locke is still recovering from knee surgery, but if the former high school track star can return to form without missing much of his speed, this is a group of tailbacks that this offense will heavily rely on to move the chains.
With the outspoken voice of the wide receivers, Dickie Lyons Jr, no longer running routes, the targets for the passing game will be mostly less familiar names. Luckily for Cats fans, all-everything player Randall Cobb looks to be the best option, since switching from quarterback, to break it big from the receiver position. With the solid play of Maurice Grinter at tight end, and the potential of the remaining young receiving corps, this is a group that may need to overachieve to keep hopes of a fourth straight bowl appearance alive.
Defense - The hardest hit by departures, the defensive unit will have to perform with a lot of new faces. The biggest adjustment will be in the trenches. Having lost Myron Pryor, Ventrell Jenkins, and Jeremy Jarmon, the line will be almost brand new. The returning Rickey Lumpkin will have to be the glue that keeps this unit together. With what will probably be a rotation of several linemen to start the season, the defensive front will have to grow up fast in order to be effective at stopping the run and pressuring the quarterback.
The linebackers seem to be in better shape. Only losing one starter, this bunch will be heavily relied upon to help control the game. With NFL Draft prospect Micah Johnson anchoring this group, look for big things from one of the most talented groups on the entire team.
The defensive backs are a promising collection of players. Lead by another NFL prospect in Trevard Lindley, the safeties and corners have the potential to make this one of the best defenses in the Rich Brooks era. They will have to bail out the young line when it makes mistakes, and they will make mistakes. However, with some timely interceptions and some big open field tackles, Kentucky's DB's should be able to keep the Cats in every game.
Special Teams - The specialists seem to be in decent shape going into the upcoming season. Lones Seiber is entering his third season as the place kicker. Look for Randall Cobb and a healthy Derrick Locke to return punts and kickoffs, as well as some of the talented freshmen that were recruited for their speed.
The only place of concern is with the punter. Having All-SEC selection Tim Masthay graduate leaves Kentucky without one of its best weapons in the battle for field position. Returning pooch punter Ryan Tydlacka will take over the duties. He punted for both teams in the Blue-White game and seemed comfortable as the full time punter rather than just a situational player. If the Redshirt Sophomore can continue to grow into his new role and gain confidence in his ability, he too can be a weapon that can be depended on in crucial moments.
Overall - When a team in the middle of the pack in the loaded SEC loses five starters on offense, six on defense, and their best special teams player, it is hard to imagine them gaining ground on the elite of the conference. Rich Brooks has built the program his way, regardless of what the fans originally thought about him. Each and every year he has improved the depth of the team and that should pay off this year.
What the Cats have coming back are solid players with a handful of them being NFL ready. The depth will have to be there to make up for the stars that have moved on. Coach Brooks has said he recruited a lot more speed to help keep up with teams like Florida and Georgia.
Prediction: Overall 7-5 (SEC 4-4) This team is much more talented then the SEC Media gave them credit for by picking Kentucky to finish last in the East. With a moderately difficult out-of-conference schedule, and a favorable draw of SEC West teams by avoiding LSU, Ole Miss, and Arkansas, the Big Blue Nation should be poised to finish with a trip to a fourth straight bowl game.
This year may be the toughest campaign for the Cats in quite a few years. With several key players gone from last year's Liberty Bowl winning team, and the rest of the Southeastern Conference stacked from top to bottom again, it will be interesting to see how the returning starters and new role players will step up to the challenge.
Whether it be the offense, the defense, or special teams, each squad has their own set of obstacles and difficulties to overcome for this season.
Offense - In order for this team to thrive in the cutthroat SEC East, Kentucky will have to get much better production from the quarterback position. Mike Hartline is the returning starter, but will have to show better leadership in the huddle and be more consistent with his passes and decision making. If these things don't improve, then the Junior incumbent will be constantly looking over his shoulder at a trio of inexperienced, yet talented, backups just waiting for their chance. Will Fidler looked good in the spring practices while leading his team to the win in the Blue-White game. Incoming Freshmen Ryan Mossakowski and Morgan Newton come in highly rated nationally and will be eager to show what they can do.
Even with the loss of Tony Dixon, the Kentucky backfield still looks to be in decent shape. Moncell Allen and Alfonso Smith seem to be leading the charge early in the off season. Derrick Locke is still recovering from knee surgery, but if the former high school track star can return to form without missing much of his speed, this is a group of tailbacks that this offense will heavily rely on to move the chains.
With the outspoken voice of the wide receivers, Dickie Lyons Jr, no longer running routes, the targets for the passing game will be mostly less familiar names. Luckily for Cats fans, all-everything player Randall Cobb looks to be the best option, since switching from quarterback, to break it big from the receiver position. With the solid play of Maurice Grinter at tight end, and the potential of the remaining young receiving corps, this is a group that may need to overachieve to keep hopes of a fourth straight bowl appearance alive.
Defense - The hardest hit by departures, the defensive unit will have to perform with a lot of new faces. The biggest adjustment will be in the trenches. Having lost Myron Pryor, Ventrell Jenkins, and Jeremy Jarmon, the line will be almost brand new. The returning Rickey Lumpkin will have to be the glue that keeps this unit together. With what will probably be a rotation of several linemen to start the season, the defensive front will have to grow up fast in order to be effective at stopping the run and pressuring the quarterback.
The linebackers seem to be in better shape. Only losing one starter, this bunch will be heavily relied upon to help control the game. With NFL Draft prospect Micah Johnson anchoring this group, look for big things from one of the most talented groups on the entire team.
The defensive backs are a promising collection of players. Lead by another NFL prospect in Trevard Lindley, the safeties and corners have the potential to make this one of the best defenses in the Rich Brooks era. They will have to bail out the young line when it makes mistakes, and they will make mistakes. However, with some timely interceptions and some big open field tackles, Kentucky's DB's should be able to keep the Cats in every game.
Special Teams - The specialists seem to be in decent shape going into the upcoming season. Lones Seiber is entering his third season as the place kicker. Look for Randall Cobb and a healthy Derrick Locke to return punts and kickoffs, as well as some of the talented freshmen that were recruited for their speed.
The only place of concern is with the punter. Having All-SEC selection Tim Masthay graduate leaves Kentucky without one of its best weapons in the battle for field position. Returning pooch punter Ryan Tydlacka will take over the duties. He punted for both teams in the Blue-White game and seemed comfortable as the full time punter rather than just a situational player. If the Redshirt Sophomore can continue to grow into his new role and gain confidence in his ability, he too can be a weapon that can be depended on in crucial moments.
Overall - When a team in the middle of the pack in the loaded SEC loses five starters on offense, six on defense, and their best special teams player, it is hard to imagine them gaining ground on the elite of the conference. Rich Brooks has built the program his way, regardless of what the fans originally thought about him. Each and every year he has improved the depth of the team and that should pay off this year.
What the Cats have coming back are solid players with a handful of them being NFL ready. The depth will have to be there to make up for the stars that have moved on. Coach Brooks has said he recruited a lot more speed to help keep up with teams like Florida and Georgia.
Prediction: Overall 7-5 (SEC 4-4) This team is much more talented then the SEC Media gave them credit for by picking Kentucky to finish last in the East. With a moderately difficult out-of-conference schedule, and a favorable draw of SEC West teams by avoiding LSU, Ole Miss, and Arkansas, the Big Blue Nation should be poised to finish with a trip to a fourth straight bowl game.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
What Should the Kentucky Wildcats Do With Billy G
There is a lot of speculation as to whether the University of Kentucky should send head coach Billy Gillispie packing or give him more time to rebuild the program. Living in Lexington, I get to hear from both sides of the fence, but the "Fire Billy G" contingent seems to be yelling louder. As with all good coaching decisions, there are two sides to this argument.
I can totally understand why the large majority of Cats fans want the coach sacked. This is the tradition that Rupp built. UK has won more games than any other Division I team in history. Kentucky is second in NCAA tournament titles with seven. This is, for crying out loud, the team that ESPN loves to cover just so they can get a good camera shot of Ashley Judd. Look at what Billy has done to the Big Blue Nation.
For the first time in almost 20 years, Kentucky is not in the NCAA field of 65. They got bounced from the NIT in the quarterfinals, and look over matched doing it. They finished fourth in the SEC East, and it wasn't a surprise. Let me say that again...FOURTH! They have lost to Gardner Webb and VMI at home in the hallowed Rupp Arena since Billy G took over. This team has played all year with no direction, no consistency, little passion, and no help for potential NBA prospects Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson.
And if all the on the court problems are not enough, Coach Gillispie seems to not be the greatest off the court representative the school has ever seen. His DUI arrest in Texas is well documented. There are tons of rumors of his drinking escapades running rampant in Lexington, including being kicked out of hotels and being banned from some of the city's finest restaurants. He has also had several altercations with the media. He has bashed ESPN sideline reporters for "dumb questions" and has displayed a horrible attitude with some of the local media that has not gone over very well with the fan base.
But with all that being said, firing the second year man may not be the wisest course of action for the University or for the development of the program. He currently would have to be paid a six million dollar buyout. With UK raising tuition, again, this payment to get rid of an athletics coach could be a public relations nightmare. Also, with the problems Athletic Director Mitch Barnhart had trying to hire a coach after Tubby Smith left, going through another coaching search may further tarnish the reputation of the school more than a couple of struggling years on the court.
The fans here were so quick to run Tubby Smith out of town because he couldn't recruit, his style of defensive play was boring, and didn't get the Cats back to the Final Four in the last ten years he was in Lexington. Even though Tubby was averaging 26 wins a year, that was not good enough. Now Gillispie has come in a recruited some good talent, including the aforementioned Patterson. With the verbal commitments of prep star Daniel Orton, Kentucky high school product Jon Hood, and Texas prep point guard G.J. Vilarino, this young team looks like they are starting to get the pieces necessary to reestablish Kentucky as an elite program like the fans demand. Gillispie needs time to bring in more of his own players and graduate what was left by Smith. If the fans hated Tubby's recruiting classes so badly, why can't they give Billy G time to get rid of what was left behind and see what he can do once the roster is full of "his" guys.
Every team goes through ups and downs. The beloved Rick Pitino has been NIT bound twice since he took over at Louisville. The man that UK fans wanted initially, Flordia's Billy Donovan, just got knocked out of his second straight NIT. Even Duke, North Carolina, and UCLA have had down years. It happens to all the great programs, but it is hard to blame a guy that has only been here two years. Additionally, the proverbial cupboard was bare of any significant talent when he got here, except for Meeks.
I agree that Billy Gillispie has some image problems, the team turns the ball over too much, and the lack of coach's flexibility with his offensive and defensive schemes are enough for Big Blue Nation to call for his head. I also think he deserves two to three more years to bring back the luster to this once shining beacon of basketball programs with his recruiting classes and his seemingly endless desire to tackle this challenge. Either way, Kentucky is definitely in for a trying off season, and it will not be boring.
I can totally understand why the large majority of Cats fans want the coach sacked. This is the tradition that Rupp built. UK has won more games than any other Division I team in history. Kentucky is second in NCAA tournament titles with seven. This is, for crying out loud, the team that ESPN loves to cover just so they can get a good camera shot of Ashley Judd. Look at what Billy has done to the Big Blue Nation.
For the first time in almost 20 years, Kentucky is not in the NCAA field of 65. They got bounced from the NIT in the quarterfinals, and look over matched doing it. They finished fourth in the SEC East, and it wasn't a surprise. Let me say that again...FOURTH! They have lost to Gardner Webb and VMI at home in the hallowed Rupp Arena since Billy G took over. This team has played all year with no direction, no consistency, little passion, and no help for potential NBA prospects Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson.
And if all the on the court problems are not enough, Coach Gillispie seems to not be the greatest off the court representative the school has ever seen. His DUI arrest in Texas is well documented. There are tons of rumors of his drinking escapades running rampant in Lexington, including being kicked out of hotels and being banned from some of the city's finest restaurants. He has also had several altercations with the media. He has bashed ESPN sideline reporters for "dumb questions" and has displayed a horrible attitude with some of the local media that has not gone over very well with the fan base.
But with all that being said, firing the second year man may not be the wisest course of action for the University or for the development of the program. He currently would have to be paid a six million dollar buyout. With UK raising tuition, again, this payment to get rid of an athletics coach could be a public relations nightmare. Also, with the problems Athletic Director Mitch Barnhart had trying to hire a coach after Tubby Smith left, going through another coaching search may further tarnish the reputation of the school more than a couple of struggling years on the court.
The fans here were so quick to run Tubby Smith out of town because he couldn't recruit, his style of defensive play was boring, and didn't get the Cats back to the Final Four in the last ten years he was in Lexington. Even though Tubby was averaging 26 wins a year, that was not good enough. Now Gillispie has come in a recruited some good talent, including the aforementioned Patterson. With the verbal commitments of prep star Daniel Orton, Kentucky high school product Jon Hood, and Texas prep point guard G.J. Vilarino, this young team looks like they are starting to get the pieces necessary to reestablish Kentucky as an elite program like the fans demand. Gillispie needs time to bring in more of his own players and graduate what was left by Smith. If the fans hated Tubby's recruiting classes so badly, why can't they give Billy G time to get rid of what was left behind and see what he can do once the roster is full of "his" guys.
Every team goes through ups and downs. The beloved Rick Pitino has been NIT bound twice since he took over at Louisville. The man that UK fans wanted initially, Flordia's Billy Donovan, just got knocked out of his second straight NIT. Even Duke, North Carolina, and UCLA have had down years. It happens to all the great programs, but it is hard to blame a guy that has only been here two years. Additionally, the proverbial cupboard was bare of any significant talent when he got here, except for Meeks.
I agree that Billy Gillispie has some image problems, the team turns the ball over too much, and the lack of coach's flexibility with his offensive and defensive schemes are enough for Big Blue Nation to call for his head. I also think he deserves two to three more years to bring back the luster to this once shining beacon of basketball programs with his recruiting classes and his seemingly endless desire to tackle this challenge. Either way, Kentucky is definitely in for a trying off season, and it will not be boring.
Sunday, March 8, 2009
5 Things We Learned From UFC96: Jackson vs Jardine
Hello Ric's Rants followers. I have made my first attempt a creating a slide show blog. I was unable to do it here on this site, so please check it out on my Bleacher Report account. If you cannot click on the link below, please copy and paste into the address bar of your browser. Even if you are not a MMA or UFC fan, please check this one out and let me know how you think I did. Thanks.
Ric
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/136141-5-things-we-learned-fron-ufc-96-jackson-vs-jardine
Ric
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/136141-5-things-we-learned-fron-ufc-96-jackson-vs-jardine
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Stanley Cup Finals: How The NHL Is Slashing Itself In The Foot...Again!!!
It was announced that games one and two of the Stanley Cup Finals will be aired on NBC this year. Games three and four will be shown on Versus, and the final three games of the series, if necessary, will be back on NBC. While this may seem like a good idea at first glance, there are still problems with the NHL and the way they are marketing the league.
With the first two games being on NBC, this will give the NHL a chance at a bigger weekend audience. If past numbers tell us anything, it is that this move really won't make a huge difference. Hockey fans would rather see a clinching game than the series opener. While NBC reaches 112 million households, Versus only reaches 75 million households, which will greatly deprive a large portion of the viewing public from seeing a potential Cup clinching win in a four game sweep.
Over the last ten years, either ESPN or Versus has shown the first two games of the Finals. The remaining games of the series were shown on larger viewership networks. This still is not the greatest option either. It can be difficult for the casual fan to understand the dynamic of the two teams and how the flow of the series has gone not having seen the first two games. This is the equivalent of watching a three hour dramatic movie, but just getting to see the last 75 minutes.
The NHL has two true showcases every year, the All Star Game and the Stanley Cup Finals. Somehow they seem to screw up both opportunities to gain fans. This can be seen in the viewership totals and the scheduling of the televised games. This does not even include the poor attempt at gaining an audience with the nationally televised regular season games. The commissioner's office has done way more harm than good in their decisions on how to air this great sport.
If the NHL wants to grow in the public eye, the Stanley Cup Finals has to be readily available to be seen by as many viewers as possible. Putting some of the games on a network that only 65% of Americans have available is not the smartest move. Whether fans cannot see the first two games or a potential clinching game, both scenarios are bad for the league. This just looks like another example of Commissioner Gary Bettman over thinking a horrible idea.
With the first two games being on NBC, this will give the NHL a chance at a bigger weekend audience. If past numbers tell us anything, it is that this move really won't make a huge difference. Hockey fans would rather see a clinching game than the series opener. While NBC reaches 112 million households, Versus only reaches 75 million households, which will greatly deprive a large portion of the viewing public from seeing a potential Cup clinching win in a four game sweep.
Over the last ten years, either ESPN or Versus has shown the first two games of the Finals. The remaining games of the series were shown on larger viewership networks. This still is not the greatest option either. It can be difficult for the casual fan to understand the dynamic of the two teams and how the flow of the series has gone not having seen the first two games. This is the equivalent of watching a three hour dramatic movie, but just getting to see the last 75 minutes.
The NHL has two true showcases every year, the All Star Game and the Stanley Cup Finals. Somehow they seem to screw up both opportunities to gain fans. This can be seen in the viewership totals and the scheduling of the televised games. This does not even include the poor attempt at gaining an audience with the nationally televised regular season games. The commissioner's office has done way more harm than good in their decisions on how to air this great sport.
If the NHL wants to grow in the public eye, the Stanley Cup Finals has to be readily available to be seen by as many viewers as possible. Putting some of the games on a network that only 65% of Americans have available is not the smartest move. Whether fans cannot see the first two games or a potential clinching game, both scenarios are bad for the league. This just looks like another example of Commissioner Gary Bettman over thinking a horrible idea.
Friday, February 13, 2009
Fedor Emelianenko: What to do after he beats Josh Barnett?
With a third round submission victory over Gilbert Yvel at Affliction: Day of Reckoning, Josh Barnett looks likely to be the next opponent for Fedor Emelianenko's WAMMA Heavyweight Championship. Fedor, having dispatched of Andrei Arlovski with a highlight reel knockout, continues to show why he is considered the best pound for pound fighter in the world (and I realize it is really a dead heat for #1 P4P with Anderson Silva and Georges St. Pierre). Should Fedor beat Barnett, which I except him to do with ease, what will be left for the Russian to do against the Affliction roster?
There is not another top heavyweight waiting in the wings for the Fedor/Barnett winner. After Affliction's first card, most people were proclaiming that the group of heavyweights was far better than what the UFC had. Now that may have been true at first, the depth of competition leaves much to be desired. So let's look at what is left.
Former IFL heavyweights Ben Rothwell and Roy Nelson have not measured up in their last fights to warrant a title shot. With Rothwell now fighting for Adrenaline MMA after losing to Arlovski, and Nelson's last fight also being a knockout loss to Arlovski, neither have proven that they deserve to be in the same ring with the best heavyweight on the planet.
Fedor has already beaten two former UFC champions in Arlovski and Tim Sylvia. Andrei Arlovski is looking forward to making his professional boxing debut, so an immediate rematch is not going to happen. Sylvia has lost three of his last four bouts, and has become the guy that no one wants to watch fight anymore (I am yawning just thinking about watching another Sylvia fight). This makes the two most deserving opponents currently signed to Affliction not viable options.
There are only five other heavyweights that have fought for Affliction thus far. Gary Goodridge, Pedro Rizzo, Kirill Sidelnikov, and Gilbert Yvel have all lost their only fights with the company. That leaves Paul Buentello, who is 2-0. In his two wins, he didn't look overly impressive. He also as called out Kimbo Slice, a fight he should be able to win. It just does not seem to me that Buentello's mental approach is not ready for a high profile match the magnitude of a tilt versus Fedor.
Unless Affliction can bring in some big names from Japan or steal a major star from the UFC, the promotion may be in bigger trouble than it is rumored to be in already. Affliction has centered both of it's cards around Emelianenko, but they have been against former champions of the UFC. Josh Barnett is not a household name in the United States, but true MMA fans know this is also a very good opponent.
Should he defeat Barnett and run his record to 3-0 since coming stateside, it looks like Emelianenko will have to go elsewhere to find someone worth training for. Whether he goes to Japan for possible fights with Alistair Overreem or Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic, or finally comes to terms with the UFC for matches with the likes of Randy Couture, Brock Lesner, or Frank Mir, I would hope that Fedor won't just wait for the next tomato can Affliction will throw at him.
There is not another top heavyweight waiting in the wings for the Fedor/Barnett winner. After Affliction's first card, most people were proclaiming that the group of heavyweights was far better than what the UFC had. Now that may have been true at first, the depth of competition leaves much to be desired. So let's look at what is left.
Former IFL heavyweights Ben Rothwell and Roy Nelson have not measured up in their last fights to warrant a title shot. With Rothwell now fighting for Adrenaline MMA after losing to Arlovski, and Nelson's last fight also being a knockout loss to Arlovski, neither have proven that they deserve to be in the same ring with the best heavyweight on the planet.
Fedor has already beaten two former UFC champions in Arlovski and Tim Sylvia. Andrei Arlovski is looking forward to making his professional boxing debut, so an immediate rematch is not going to happen. Sylvia has lost three of his last four bouts, and has become the guy that no one wants to watch fight anymore (I am yawning just thinking about watching another Sylvia fight). This makes the two most deserving opponents currently signed to Affliction not viable options.
There are only five other heavyweights that have fought for Affliction thus far. Gary Goodridge, Pedro Rizzo, Kirill Sidelnikov, and Gilbert Yvel have all lost their only fights with the company. That leaves Paul Buentello, who is 2-0. In his two wins, he didn't look overly impressive. He also as called out Kimbo Slice, a fight he should be able to win. It just does not seem to me that Buentello's mental approach is not ready for a high profile match the magnitude of a tilt versus Fedor.
Unless Affliction can bring in some big names from Japan or steal a major star from the UFC, the promotion may be in bigger trouble than it is rumored to be in already. Affliction has centered both of it's cards around Emelianenko, but they have been against former champions of the UFC. Josh Barnett is not a household name in the United States, but true MMA fans know this is also a very good opponent.
Should he defeat Barnett and run his record to 3-0 since coming stateside, it looks like Emelianenko will have to go elsewhere to find someone worth training for. Whether he goes to Japan for possible fights with Alistair Overreem or Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic, or finally comes to terms with the UFC for matches with the likes of Randy Couture, Brock Lesner, or Frank Mir, I would hope that Fedor won't just wait for the next tomato can Affliction will throw at him.
Friday, February 6, 2009
Billy Gillispie and the Kentucky Wildcats: What's Going Wrong in SEC Play
After starting SEC play 5-0, the Kentucky Wildcats have dropped their last three. The fans are getting restless with the play of this year's team. So what will it take to get the Cats back to their winning ways.
Some of the problems start with the perimeter defense. After ten years of Tubby Smith's philosophy of the "Ball Line Defense", this year's poor performance defending the three-ball may make the fans want to call Minnesota to apology for running him off. Not every team is going to hit 32 footers all night long like Mississippi State did, but UK has to pressure the outside threats a lot better.
This team also need to find a third and fourth scorer. It is well documented how great of a scoring duo Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson are this year. But if I am the opposing coach, I double team both with the understanding that my five guys can outscore Kentucky's other three. The rest of the team needs to have the confidence to take the open shot in order to free up the two main threats. It would not hurt for the open shots to go in on occasion, as well.
The biggest problem seems to be a combination of turnovers and inconsistent point guard play. These two go hand in hand, but the whole team is guilty of turnovers. Whether it is youthful mistakes or the occasional brain hiccup, UK has found almost every conceivable way to give the ball to the other team. They may have even invented some new ones.
The point guard positions is being played by committee, with each man having their own problems. Michael Porter shows flashes of great passing, but won't shoot enough and makes too many stupid mistakes. DeAndre Liggins makes a lot of freshman mistakes. He also shoots too many bad shots, as evident with his current 38.6% field goal average. And Kevin Galloway has not developed as expected, and his lack of minutes is not helping his confidence.
This team does have a huge upside. They have a Player of the Year candidate who can blow up for 50 points at any time in Jodie Meeks. Patrick Patterson is the best big man in the SEC. There is only one senior, which means this is a team that has potential to keep getting better. The new guys on this team like Liggins, Galloway, Darius Miller, and Josh Harrellson keep getting better every time out, Wildcat fans are some of the best in the nation and they have a tendency to push the team through hard times. This is also only coach Billy Gillispie's second year leading the troops in Rupp Arena. He proved he is a very good coach at Texas A&M, he just needs time to build the program.
The players need to continue to adapt to the coach's scheme. Billy G. needs to continue to bring in great recruiting classes. Someone need to teach these guys how to hang on to the ball and how to hit an open shot. Although this team may not get Kentucky back to the NCAA Final Four, it won't be long until the Wildcats are right back atop the rankings as an elite program again. Let's just hope they don't throw that chance away.
Strikeforce Buys EliteXC, Hopefully Didn't Buy Love Affair with Kimbo
With Strikeforce buying the the assets, video library, and some of the fighter contracts from the now extinct EliteXC, the question is what to do with all the new toys. The obvious focus will be on which fighters will compete under the Strikeforce banner, especially Robbie Lawler, Gina Carano, and of course Kevin "Kimbo Slice" Ferguson.
I would hope that Strikeforce watched the mess that EliteXC made by resting all hopes on a cult figure rather than around the best representation of mixed martial artists on the roster. With guys like Lawler, Scott Smith, Yves Edwards, and Nick Diaz under contract, the promotion has many familiar names to bring in hardcore fans. You add in a good mix of young up-and-comers and you have the recipe for good fight cards.
Strikeforce can use Gina Carano as the focal point to bring female MMA fighters into the mainstream. With proper marketing, good matchmaking, and the recognizable face of the former "American Gladiator" to draw ratings, the women's division can that something different needed to compete against the likes of Affliction and the UFC.
The production needs to be better as well. They need their announcers build up the credentials of each fighter, not tell us how badly they failed in the UFC. They need put together fighters that make for an exciting matches based on their styles, rather than put all the top guys against tomato cans to build a false reputation. They need to promote the fighters that deserve to be headliners, and let the less experienced guys and girls learn the ropes on the undercard.
And that brings us to Mr. Ferguson. If Strikeforce wants to make a quick buck, then featuring Kimbo is the way to go. The general MMA fan will tune in to see if he can bounce back from the embarrassment at the hands of Seth Petruzelli, hoping the previous hype was justified and the loss was a fluke. True MMA followers may watch to if Slice is still the fraud that hardcore fans always thought he was, wishing for another brutal beating by another underachiever. That is, of course, if they tune in at all.
I hope that Strikeforce paid attention to the mistakes made by the previous owners of its latest acquisitions. Because building your franchise around a guy with very little experience, a decent cult following, and virtually nothing to offer other than a Youtube built reputation works great. Just look at what that did for EliteXC.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
UFC 94 ST-PIERRE VS PENN 2 - My Predictions
Every now and then, there comes an event that is not to be missed. If you are a football fan, you are watching the Super Bowl. If you like hockey, the Stanley Cup playoffs are a must. This Saturday's UFC 94 is one of those events for the MMA faithful. This will probably be the best UFC card of the year, top to bottom. The only one this year that may top it could be UFC 100. And that's only if Dana White has an unusual extravaganza of great fights being reserved for that event.
I am by no means a mixed martial arts expert, but here is what I think will happen this weekend.
Matt Arroyo (3-2-0) vs. Dan Cramer (0-0-0)
These are both veterans of The Ultimate Fighter reality show. I have seen a few of Arroyo's fights, and my only knowledge of Cramer is what was shown on TUF. Two young, hungry fighters trying to make a name for themselves. I just think Cramer looked better on the show than Arroyo has shown in is offerings thus far in the Octagon.
Prediction: Cramer by 1st round TKO
Jake O'Brien (10-2-0) vs. Christian Wellisch (9-3-0)
I have not been overly impressed with what I have seen from Wellisch. O'Brien is coming off a lopsided lose to Cain Velazquez. I see O'Brien regaining the form that he showed in dominating Heath Herring and win this one with ease.
Prediction: O'Brien by Unanimous Decision 30-27
Chris Wilson (13-4-1) vs. John Howard (10-4-0)
The UFC debuting Howard has held titles in WFL, Ring of Combat, and Combat Zone. Wilson went the distance with Sherdog.com world-ranked Jon Fitch, in a fight that saw Howard rock Fitch early. I just don't see Howard winning his first match inside the Octagon.
Prediction: Wilson by 2nd round KO
Manny Gamburyan (10-4-0) vs. Thiago Tavares (17-3-0)
This fight matches two guys with similar styles. They both like to use their strength to overpower their opponents, they both have good submissions, and they are both looking to bounce back from loses. The difference will be Manny's Judo throws against Thiago's Muay Thai. I see Tavares using his striking to keep his shorter opponent at bay and not allowing Gamburyan to utilize his throws.
Prediction: Tavares by Unanimous Decision 29-28
Jon Fitch (21-3-1) vs. Akihiro Gono (28-13-7)
Gono is coming off a hard fought split decision loss at UFC 8p to Dan Hardy. Fitch is coming off a five round routing at the hands of Welterweight Champion Georges St-Pierre. Gono likes to think his strength lies in his experience. He'll be experiencing unconsciousness as Fitch regains his dominant form that propelled him to a title shot in the first place.
Prediction: Fitch by 1st round TKO
Nate Diaz (10-2-0) vs. Clay Guida (24-6-0)
Diaz has been perfect in the Octagon since being crowned the winner of TUF season5. With older brother and UFC vet Nick Diaz in his corner and in his ear, Nate's attitude is beginning to overshadow his blossoming skills. Guida has won 3 of his last 4 fights, with his only loss being to Roger Huerta at The Ultimate Fighter Finale in December 2007. Guida was winning by a landslide until getting caught with a knee, then getting choked out in the third round. Diaz likes to use his length to keep his opponent at distance until he is ready go take it to the ground and look for a submission. Guida fights with constant energy looking to push the pace, and is not afraid to use his strength and wrestling to control the match on the ground. Diaz may just be the future of the Lightweight division, but Guida's pressure looks to be more than Nick's little brother can handle.
Prediction: Guida by 3rd round TKO
Karo Parisyan (26-5-0) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (11-0-1)
Parisyan is looking to bounce back after a controversial stoppage lose to Thiago Alves at UFC Fight Night last April. Coming into this match healthy after battling Panic Attacks and a back injury that caused him to pull out of a scheduled match against Yoshiyuki Yoshida at UFC 88, the Judo practitioner is looking to get himself back into the Welterweight title picture. The Korean Kim is 2-0 in the UFC with victories against England's Jason Tan and TUF alum Matt Brown via split decision in his last fight. Kim is also proficient in Judo, holding a 4th degree black belt. A win against a fighter the caliber of Karo would definitely make Kim's stock skyrocket. Unfortunately, Parisyan has already fought a who's who of the division's best and Kim just doesn't stack up yet.
Prediction: Parisyan by Unanimous Decision 30-27
Stephan Bonnar (14-4-0) vs. Jon Jones (7-0-0)
When you think of the name Stephan Bonnar, what is the first thing that comes to mind? Admit it, you said the two wars with Forrest Griffin. For all the images of Bonnar swinging for the fences in their epic battles, he is more than a MMA fighter with two Golden Gloves Boxing titles. Stephan has a good ground game with great submissions, just ask James Irvin and Mike Nickels who both tapped to "The American Psycho." Jon Jones won his UFC debut in August with a unanimous decision victory over fellow first timer Andre Gusmao. Jones is a junior college wrestling champion and a Greco Wrestling All-American who is very athletic and has very unorthodox striking. This has all the makings of an exciting fight, but Bonnar should have the advantage in this one.
Prediction: Bonnar by 2nd round submission
Lyoto Machida (13-0-0) vs. Thiago Silva (13-0-0)
This match up of undefeated warriors should vault its winner closer to a potential title shot later this year. Machida's tactical counter striking is not the most pleasing style to watch, but is very effective. The lack of excitement in his fights is probably why he has not been fast tracked to a shot against the 205 lbs. king. Silva can be very aggressive, but his black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu also makes in dangerous in a ground war. This will probably see Silva pushing the action, chasing the defending Machida around the ring while Lyoto is just counter punching until he finds an opening. I like an aggressive fighter in most cases, but catching Machida is just what he is hoping Silva will do.
Prediction: Machida by Unanimous Decision
Main Event for the UFC Welterweight Championship Welterweight Champion Georges St-Pierre (17-2-0) vs. Lightweight Champion BJ Penn (13-4-1)
This rematch of a disputed split decision won by St-Pierre in 2006 is the talk of the MMA world. For the first time in UFC history, two current champions will face each other. Both men can claim a Sherdog.com world ranking in the top 5 pound-for-pound. St-Pierre seems to get better every time we see him. He has won 9 of his last 10, only losing in a mental stumble against Matt Serra, which he later avenged. His combination of explosiveness and athleticism is seemingly unmatched among the 170 lbs. division. Penn could very well be the best mixed martial artist in the world bar none, if only we would see the dedication to training that befits a true world champion every time out. Penn has looked like the kind of world champion we have all hoped for in his last handful of fights, but can he continue to be that man. GSP has looked unstoppable in his last few fights, but the question is whether he can overcome the mental errors that have plagued him in past big fights. I think this will be the early front runner for Fight of the Year, and should set the table for the kind of match that every UFC fighter should aspire to have. This is a coin flip, but I have to pick someone.
Prediction: St-Pierre by Unanimous Decision 49-48
Sunday, January 25, 2009
How to fix the NHL All-Star Game
There has been a lot of complaining about the All-Star game for the NHL this year. Whether it is the fact that both conferences only have 2 teams represented in the starting lineup (this is before Sidney Crosby withdrew due to injury and was replaced by Tampa Bay's Martin St Louis) or the new rule causing two Detroit players to be suspended one game because of no-showing the game, it seems like no one is happy. That is, of course, unless you are a fan of Montreal, Chicago, Anaheim, or Pittsburgh. There has got to be a way to make it better, for the players and the fans. No solution is going to keep everyone happy, but I have a few ideas.
The first thing it to change the selection process for the starters. It is now based solely on the fan's vote. I have no problem with the fans voting, this game is for them. But is it really a showcase of "All-Stars" when one team, in particular the home team, stuffing the ballots to get 4 of the 6 starters. So my thought is to still let the fans vote for the starters, but only one player from each team can be in the starting lineup. This way there are 12 teams represented at the beginning of the game, giving it more credibility and giving fans from more markets a reason to watch. Now fans have to be a little more selective about who they vote for, and it may translate into more people watching more games so they are better educated on who really deserves to be there. In the case of injury causing a starter to miss the game, the next highest vote getter, whose team is not already represented by a remaining player in the starting lineup, would fill in.
So let's take a look at how the team would look using my voting rules
EASTERN ALL STARS
Current 2009 team: F Sidney Crosby*-Pittsburgh, F Alexei Kovalev-Montreal, F Evgeni Malkin-Pittsburgh, D Andrei Markov-Montreal, D Mike Komisarek-Montreal, G Carey Price-Montreal
(*Crosby out due to injury. Coach's choice-replaced by Martin St Louis-Tampa Bay)
My 2009 team: F Sidney Crosby*-Pittsburgh, F Alex Ovechkin-Washington, F Thomas Vanek-Buffalo, D Zdeno Chara-Boston, D Kimmo Timonen, G Carey Price-Montreal
(*Crosby out due to injury. Fan's vote-replaced by Evgeni Malkin-Pittsburgh)
WESTERN ALL-STARS
Current 2009 team: F Patrick Kane-Chicago, F Jonathan Toews-Chicago, F Ryan Getzlaf-Anaheim, D Brian Campbell-Chicago, D Scott Niedermayer-Anaheim, G Jean-Sebastian Giguere-Anaheim
My 2009 team: F Patrick Kane-Chicago, F Ryan Getzlaf-Anaheim, F Joe Thornton-San Jose, D Nicklas Lidstrom*-Detroit, D Dion Phaneuf-Calgary, G Roberto Luongo-Vancouver
(*Lidstrom out due to injury. Fan's vote-replaced by Sheldon Souray-Edmonton)
So now the East is represented by five teams currently in the playoff picture and has the top vote getter (Crosby) being replaced by the second highest vote getter (Malkin). And Pittsburgh is currently the only team not currently in the playoffs based on the standings, they are only one point out. The West has all six teams currently in playoff positions, including the 1-4 seeds based on current standings. This is a better collection of players, which is better for the game and for the fans to see different guys playing on lines together.
I would also like to see a rule put in place that no more than 3 players from a team can be selected to the All-Start Game. No offense to the fans of Montreal for voting in 4 starters, but you can see all four guys play at 42 home games each year. Why would you not want to see the best the league has to offer from every team all in one place. Isn't that what the All-Star Game is suppose to be about.
I would not be opposed to the players voting on the reserves. Every player must vote for 6 forwards, 2 defensemen, and 1 goalie, but are not allowed to vote for guys on their own team. If there are ties in the player's votes, use the fan's vote as a tie breaker. This little wrinkle allows the fans to get the starters they want, the players get a voice since they know the guys they play against better than just about anyone else, and the coaches don't get crucified by the fans and the media for selecting their own guys or their favorite people or former players and can just work on putting together great lines in order to put on a great show for the fans.
There has also been a great deal of debate over the rule that commissioner Gary Bettman put into place that suspends players the first game after the All-Star Game for not participating if they played the last game before the ASG. Most notably, this is affecting Detroit players Nicklas Lidstrom and Pavel Datsyuk. Both were selected as reserves to the West, but both are declining to play due to injury. They both played in the last game before the ASG. Lidstrom has been playing this year fighting tendinitis, and Datsyuk has been playing with an injured hip. They both want to use the break to rest and recover so they can be better prepared for the stretch run of the regular season, and get the team into a position to defend the Stanley Cup. Sidney Crosby is also injured and has withdrawn from playing in the ASG. He did, however, attend the festivities so he is not being suspended. Now, I don't agree with the suspensions, but I also don't feel the players should just blow off the fans either. I propose a monetary penalty. Give each player a bonus of $50,000 for being selected to the ASG. They get the money if they play in the game. If they are injured and are unable to participate, they still get $25,000 for showing up and interacting with the fans. If they are chosen and do not show up at all, the player's $25,000 appearance fee will be donated to a charity of the league's choosing, and the play is fined $25,000 which will be donated to a charity of that player's choosing. I think the charity needs to be either one that is associated with the league, or one that is local to the site of the game. This gives an incentive for the players to show up, but also helps give the players not showing up a way to save face with the fans since charities benefit from the money collected from the league and that player. It should be an honor to be an All-Star, and if this is in conjunction with my new voting rules, it makes the player more responsible to the fans and his piers.
And since we are talking about catering to the fans, how about we find a network that more people get to display this showcase of the greatest hockey players on the planet. I realize that the NHL had to find someone to show their games after the strike, but I don't feel that the game can grow anymore being shown on Versus. I would like to see the NHL back on ESPN personally. Versus is in approximately 39% less households than ESPN. The current TV deal was extended by 3 years as of January 2008 to show hockey on Versus and NBC. So Bettman's great plan to grow the league's fan base is to put the product in less households, and to put the fan's voted league showcase on Versus. Why is the game not on NBC like the Winter Classic was. Having a showcase game on national television can do nothing but improve the chances of gaining new fans. Are you really telling me that the US Figure Skating Championships will bring in more viewers on NBC today the the ASG would if it was on instead? Not to put down the difficulty of a 15 year old girl doing a Triple Lutz, but I don't think so!
Somebody with some common sense and a set of brass pucks needs to knock down Gary Bettman's office door and force him to make better decisions on the direction of the game. I know no one of any true importance within the hierarchy of the NHL will read this, or would even take any of my suggestions seriously. But if the fans of hockey don't speak up, the All-Star Game is destined to fail. But on the bright side, it will never be the worst game as long as the NFL still puts on the Pro Bowl. But that is a rant for another day.
The first thing it to change the selection process for the starters. It is now based solely on the fan's vote. I have no problem with the fans voting, this game is for them. But is it really a showcase of "All-Stars" when one team, in particular the home team, stuffing the ballots to get 4 of the 6 starters. So my thought is to still let the fans vote for the starters, but only one player from each team can be in the starting lineup. This way there are 12 teams represented at the beginning of the game, giving it more credibility and giving fans from more markets a reason to watch. Now fans have to be a little more selective about who they vote for, and it may translate into more people watching more games so they are better educated on who really deserves to be there. In the case of injury causing a starter to miss the game, the next highest vote getter, whose team is not already represented by a remaining player in the starting lineup, would fill in.
So let's take a look at how the team would look using my voting rules
EASTERN ALL STARS
Current 2009 team: F Sidney Crosby*-Pittsburgh, F Alexei Kovalev-Montreal, F Evgeni Malkin-Pittsburgh, D Andrei Markov-Montreal, D Mike Komisarek-Montreal, G Carey Price-Montreal
(*Crosby out due to injury. Coach's choice-replaced by Martin St Louis-Tampa Bay)
My 2009 team: F Sidney Crosby*-Pittsburgh, F Alex Ovechkin-Washington, F Thomas Vanek-Buffalo, D Zdeno Chara-Boston, D Kimmo Timonen, G Carey Price-Montreal
(*Crosby out due to injury. Fan's vote-replaced by Evgeni Malkin-Pittsburgh)
WESTERN ALL-STARS
Current 2009 team: F Patrick Kane-Chicago, F Jonathan Toews-Chicago, F Ryan Getzlaf-Anaheim, D Brian Campbell-Chicago, D Scott Niedermayer-Anaheim, G Jean-Sebastian Giguere-Anaheim
My 2009 team: F Patrick Kane-Chicago, F Ryan Getzlaf-Anaheim, F Joe Thornton-San Jose, D Nicklas Lidstrom*-Detroit, D Dion Phaneuf-Calgary, G Roberto Luongo-Vancouver
(*Lidstrom out due to injury. Fan's vote-replaced by Sheldon Souray-Edmonton)
So now the East is represented by five teams currently in the playoff picture and has the top vote getter (Crosby) being replaced by the second highest vote getter (Malkin). And Pittsburgh is currently the only team not currently in the playoffs based on the standings, they are only one point out. The West has all six teams currently in playoff positions, including the 1-4 seeds based on current standings. This is a better collection of players, which is better for the game and for the fans to see different guys playing on lines together.
I would also like to see a rule put in place that no more than 3 players from a team can be selected to the All-Start Game. No offense to the fans of Montreal for voting in 4 starters, but you can see all four guys play at 42 home games each year. Why would you not want to see the best the league has to offer from every team all in one place. Isn't that what the All-Star Game is suppose to be about.
I would not be opposed to the players voting on the reserves. Every player must vote for 6 forwards, 2 defensemen, and 1 goalie, but are not allowed to vote for guys on their own team. If there are ties in the player's votes, use the fan's vote as a tie breaker. This little wrinkle allows the fans to get the starters they want, the players get a voice since they know the guys they play against better than just about anyone else, and the coaches don't get crucified by the fans and the media for selecting their own guys or their favorite people or former players and can just work on putting together great lines in order to put on a great show for the fans.
There has also been a great deal of debate over the rule that commissioner Gary Bettman put into place that suspends players the first game after the All-Star Game for not participating if they played the last game before the ASG. Most notably, this is affecting Detroit players Nicklas Lidstrom and Pavel Datsyuk. Both were selected as reserves to the West, but both are declining to play due to injury. They both played in the last game before the ASG. Lidstrom has been playing this year fighting tendinitis, and Datsyuk has been playing with an injured hip. They both want to use the break to rest and recover so they can be better prepared for the stretch run of the regular season, and get the team into a position to defend the Stanley Cup. Sidney Crosby is also injured and has withdrawn from playing in the ASG. He did, however, attend the festivities so he is not being suspended. Now, I don't agree with the suspensions, but I also don't feel the players should just blow off the fans either. I propose a monetary penalty. Give each player a bonus of $50,000 for being selected to the ASG. They get the money if they play in the game. If they are injured and are unable to participate, they still get $25,000 for showing up and interacting with the fans. If they are chosen and do not show up at all, the player's $25,000 appearance fee will be donated to a charity of the league's choosing, and the play is fined $25,000 which will be donated to a charity of that player's choosing. I think the charity needs to be either one that is associated with the league, or one that is local to the site of the game. This gives an incentive for the players to show up, but also helps give the players not showing up a way to save face with the fans since charities benefit from the money collected from the league and that player. It should be an honor to be an All-Star, and if this is in conjunction with my new voting rules, it makes the player more responsible to the fans and his piers.
And since we are talking about catering to the fans, how about we find a network that more people get to display this showcase of the greatest hockey players on the planet. I realize that the NHL had to find someone to show their games after the strike, but I don't feel that the game can grow anymore being shown on Versus. I would like to see the NHL back on ESPN personally. Versus is in approximately 39% less households than ESPN. The current TV deal was extended by 3 years as of January 2008 to show hockey on Versus and NBC. So Bettman's great plan to grow the league's fan base is to put the product in less households, and to put the fan's voted league showcase on Versus. Why is the game not on NBC like the Winter Classic was. Having a showcase game on national television can do nothing but improve the chances of gaining new fans. Are you really telling me that the US Figure Skating Championships will bring in more viewers on NBC today the the ASG would if it was on instead? Not to put down the difficulty of a 15 year old girl doing a Triple Lutz, but I don't think so!
Somebody with some common sense and a set of brass pucks needs to knock down Gary Bettman's office door and force him to make better decisions on the direction of the game. I know no one of any true importance within the hierarchy of the NHL will read this, or would even take any of my suggestions seriously. But if the fans of hockey don't speak up, the All-Star Game is destined to fail. But on the bright side, it will never be the worst game as long as the NFL still puts on the Pro Bowl. But that is a rant for another day.
Monday, January 19, 2009
2009 Predictions - AL West
Now it's time to finish up the AL with the picks for the West
LOS ANGELES ANGELS (2008 record 100-62)
Key Additions: RP Brian Fuentes
Key Losses: RP Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira
Unsigned Free Agents: LF Garret Anderson, SP Jon Garland
There is good news and bad news for the Angels. The bad news is that the best relief pitcher in baseball and the best free agent bat just happen to be the two players that this team lost in the off season. More bad news is that their is really no one available that will be a comparable to what was lost. And to top that off, the Angels had to trade their first basemen of the future, Casey Kotchman, to the Braves just to get the now departed Teixeira. Now the good news, LA is still in the AL West. May not win 100 games again, but this team should once again run away with the division.
TEXAS RANGERS (2008 record 79-83)
Key Additions: None
Key Losses: OF Milton Bradley, 3B Ramon Vazquez, RP Wes Littleton, C Gerald Laird
Unsigned Free Agents: SP Jason Jennings, RP Jamey Wright
Well, it looks like another long year for the guys from Arlington. They have a good core of young players like Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, and Michael Young. It is good for a team like this to see the success that Tampa Bay had by building through youth and homegrown talent, but there is just not enough of the latter to take the Rangers seriously. Yet.
OAKLAND ATHLETICS (2008 record 75-86)
Key Additions: 1B Jason Giambi, OF Matt Holliday
Key Losses: RP Alan Embree, SP Greg Smith, RP Huston Street, OF Carlos Gonzalez
Unsigned Free Agents: LF Emil Brown , RP Keith Foulke, DH Frank Thomas
It is really easy to look at the A's adding bats with Giambi and Holliday, then coming to the conclusion that Oakland will give the Angels a run for their money for the division title. But as Lee Corso says every Saturday in the fall, "Not so fast my friend!" The two bats do not really address the needs of this team. They are returning only one starting pitcher with an ERA under 4.00, and Justin Duchscherer lead the team in wins with only ten. They also traded away the only true closer on the team in Street. So unless this team and its new hired guns can manufacture around 15-20 runs a game, Oakland looks to take a step in the wrong direction this season.
SEATTLE MARINERS (2008 record 61-101)
Key Additions: 3B Russell Branyan, OF Franklin Gutierrez, 1B Mike Carp, OF Endy Chavez, RP Aaron Heilman, SP Jason Vargas
Key Losses: 3B Willie Bloomquist, LF Raul Ibanez, 2B Luis Valbuena, RP JJ Putz, RP Sean Green, OF Jeremy Reed
Unsigned Free Agents: 1B Miguel Cairo
What can be said about the Mariners that has not already been made fun of. This is a team with three established stars in Felix Hernandez, Adrain Beltre, and Ichiro Suzuki. Outside of them, the roster is loaded with unproven prospects and journeymen than never reached their potential. Seattle made a ton of player moves this off season, but it does not look like the new hires will be much help. Of the additions, only Gutierrez will play everyday, and Heilman looks to be the pencilled in closer. This team either needs a better farm system or a better talent scout to be in charge of personnel. Good Luck M's, hopefully you will not repeat last year's 100+ losses, but don't bet on it.
My prediction for 2009
1. Angels
2. Rangers
3. Athletics
4. Mariners
LOS ANGELES ANGELS (2008 record 100-62)
Key Additions: RP Brian Fuentes
Key Losses: RP Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira
Unsigned Free Agents: LF Garret Anderson, SP Jon Garland
There is good news and bad news for the Angels. The bad news is that the best relief pitcher in baseball and the best free agent bat just happen to be the two players that this team lost in the off season. More bad news is that their is really no one available that will be a comparable to what was lost. And to top that off, the Angels had to trade their first basemen of the future, Casey Kotchman, to the Braves just to get the now departed Teixeira. Now the good news, LA is still in the AL West. May not win 100 games again, but this team should once again run away with the division.
TEXAS RANGERS (2008 record 79-83)
Key Additions: None
Key Losses: OF Milton Bradley, 3B Ramon Vazquez, RP Wes Littleton, C Gerald Laird
Unsigned Free Agents: SP Jason Jennings, RP Jamey Wright
Well, it looks like another long year for the guys from Arlington. They have a good core of young players like Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, and Michael Young. It is good for a team like this to see the success that Tampa Bay had by building through youth and homegrown talent, but there is just not enough of the latter to take the Rangers seriously. Yet.
OAKLAND ATHLETICS (2008 record 75-86)
Key Additions: 1B Jason Giambi, OF Matt Holliday
Key Losses: RP Alan Embree, SP Greg Smith, RP Huston Street, OF Carlos Gonzalez
Unsigned Free Agents: LF Emil Brown , RP Keith Foulke, DH Frank Thomas
It is really easy to look at the A's adding bats with Giambi and Holliday, then coming to the conclusion that Oakland will give the Angels a run for their money for the division title. But as Lee Corso says every Saturday in the fall, "Not so fast my friend!" The two bats do not really address the needs of this team. They are returning only one starting pitcher with an ERA under 4.00, and Justin Duchscherer lead the team in wins with only ten. They also traded away the only true closer on the team in Street. So unless this team and its new hired guns can manufacture around 15-20 runs a game, Oakland looks to take a step in the wrong direction this season.
SEATTLE MARINERS (2008 record 61-101)
Key Additions: 3B Russell Branyan, OF Franklin Gutierrez, 1B Mike Carp, OF Endy Chavez, RP Aaron Heilman, SP Jason Vargas
Key Losses: 3B Willie Bloomquist, LF Raul Ibanez, 2B Luis Valbuena, RP JJ Putz, RP Sean Green, OF Jeremy Reed
Unsigned Free Agents: 1B Miguel Cairo
What can be said about the Mariners that has not already been made fun of. This is a team with three established stars in Felix Hernandez, Adrain Beltre, and Ichiro Suzuki. Outside of them, the roster is loaded with unproven prospects and journeymen than never reached their potential. Seattle made a ton of player moves this off season, but it does not look like the new hires will be much help. Of the additions, only Gutierrez will play everyday, and Heilman looks to be the pencilled in closer. This team either needs a better farm system or a better talent scout to be in charge of personnel. Good Luck M's, hopefully you will not repeat last year's 100+ losses, but don't bet on it.
My prediction for 2009
1. Angels
2. Rangers
3. Athletics
4. Mariners
Friday, January 16, 2009
2009 Predictions - AL Central
Alright, now it is time to go over the American League Central:
AL CENTRAL
CHICAGO WHITE SOX (2008 record 89-74)
Key additions: SP Bartolo Colon, SS Wilson Betemit, SP Jeff Marquez, SS Brent Lillibridge
Key Losses: SP Horacio Ramirez, RP Boone Logan, SP Javier Vazquez, OF/1B Nick Swisher
Unsigned Free Agents: SS Orlando Cabrera, 3B Joe Crede, OF Ken Griffey Jr, 3B Juan Uribe
The White Sox are always a tough bunch to figure out. They seem to have great talent in places (Jermaine Dye, Mark Buehrle, Jim Thome), and just average in other (AJ Pierzynski, Brian Anderson, and Paul Konerko). On some days, the bunch I listed as average have great games, if not great stretches of games. On the flip side, the guys I have listed as great talent go though slumps for no apparent reason and never seem to fully come out of it. Also I don't fell the guys they added make them better than the guys that they lost. Ozzie seems to manage the team his way, for better or for worse no matter the personnel or the situation. That should make for an interesting year, albeit not a division championship year.
MINNESOTA TWINS (2008 record 88-75)
Key additions: none
Key losses: SS Adam Everett
Unsigned Free Agent: RP Eddie Guardado, RP Dennys Reyes
The Twinkies are one of the best examples of a blue-collar team that there is in all of baseball. Evan with the emergence of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau in the MVP race the last few years and the potential of Francisco Liriano as the ace of the pitching staff, this is just not a team loaded with guys you wish your team had. They play the game the way the game is suppose to be played, hard nosed and all out every pitch of every at bat. I still feel that your team either gets better or gets worse, it doesn't stay the same. With no notable moves in the off season other than the loss of Everett through free agency, the Twins will be contenders but may not have enough to make the playoffs without some trade deadline deals to improve.
CLEVELAND INDIANS (2008 record 81-81)
Key additions: SP Carl Pavano, RP Kerry Wood, 2B Mark DeRosa, 2B Luis Valbeuna, RP Joe Smith
Key losses: RP Jeff Stevens, OF Franklin Gutierrez
Unsigned Free Agents: RP Brendan Donnelly, SP Scott Elarton, C Sal Fasano, RP Juan Rincon
With the exception of the Kansas City Royals, the Indians have been the most active of any team in the Central. It is hard to feel bad for the Tribe after losing CC Sabathia to a trade deadline deal last year. All they did was have another pitcher win the Cy Young in Cliff Lee. If Pavano can regain any of the potential he showed before all his injury problems kept him on the DL during what seemed like the entire length of his contract with the Yankees, he may be the arm that Tribe fans have been waiting for to solidify the back end of the rotation. The signing of Wood makes the end of the game a lot less worrisome, especially with up-and-comer Jensen Lewis primed for a starring role in the bullpen along side Rafael Perez and Rafael Betancourt. The only question is whether or not the bats can light up the scoreboard like they did in 2007 or if they will stay colder than Bismark, ND (which had a temperate of -44 yesterday) like they did in 2008. If the lumber heats up, look for this group of Indians at the top of the standings.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS (2008 record 75-87)
Key additions: 3B Wille Bloomquist, RP Kyle Farnsworth, SP Horacio Ramirez, CF Coco Crisp, 1B Mike Jacobs
Key Losses: CF Joey Gathright, RP Leo Nunez, RP Ramon Ramirez, SP Tyler Lumsden
Unsigned Free Agents: SP Jairo Cuevas, 2B Mark Grudzielanek
KC looks like they are slowly but surely building a good baseball team. This is a long time coming for a team that has not been in the playoffs since they won the World Series in 1985. 23 years is a long time to start making the correct moves to improve the team, but Royals fans will take it. All of the new additions should have immediate impact on the level on play, and no one KC lost should be off great consequence, other than maybe Ramirez. The pieces are starting to fall into place, but the team in the powder blues are still a few years from being legit.
DETROIT TIGERS (2008 record 74-88)
Key additions: SS Adam Everett, C Gerald Laird
Key losses: RP Kyle Farnsworth, SS Edgar Renteria
Unsigned Free Agents: RP Casey Fossum, SP Freddy Garcia, RP Aquilino Lopez, SP Kenny Rogers
What happened to the Tigers? This is a team that prior to the 2008 season was all but in the World Series. Were it not for Seattle and Baltimore, this would have been the worst team in the AL, and they were the most disappointing. Injuries, inconsistency, a perceived lack of effort, and a ton of bad luck (see Joel Zumaya getting hurt playing Guitar Hero) doomed Detroit from the beginning. I don't see a playoff run for Motown, but this year should have them pointed back in the right direction and making life miserable for the rest of the American League Central.
My prediction for 2009
1. Indians
2. Twins
3. Tigers
4. White Sox
5. Royals
AL CENTRAL
CHICAGO WHITE SOX (2008 record 89-74)
Key additions: SP Bartolo Colon, SS Wilson Betemit, SP Jeff Marquez, SS Brent Lillibridge
Key Losses: SP Horacio Ramirez, RP Boone Logan, SP Javier Vazquez, OF/1B Nick Swisher
Unsigned Free Agents: SS Orlando Cabrera, 3B Joe Crede, OF Ken Griffey Jr, 3B Juan Uribe
The White Sox are always a tough bunch to figure out. They seem to have great talent in places (Jermaine Dye, Mark Buehrle, Jim Thome), and just average in other (AJ Pierzynski, Brian Anderson, and Paul Konerko). On some days, the bunch I listed as average have great games, if not great stretches of games. On the flip side, the guys I have listed as great talent go though slumps for no apparent reason and never seem to fully come out of it. Also I don't fell the guys they added make them better than the guys that they lost. Ozzie seems to manage the team his way, for better or for worse no matter the personnel or the situation. That should make for an interesting year, albeit not a division championship year.
MINNESOTA TWINS (2008 record 88-75)
Key additions: none
Key losses: SS Adam Everett
Unsigned Free Agent: RP Eddie Guardado, RP Dennys Reyes
The Twinkies are one of the best examples of a blue-collar team that there is in all of baseball. Evan with the emergence of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau in the MVP race the last few years and the potential of Francisco Liriano as the ace of the pitching staff, this is just not a team loaded with guys you wish your team had. They play the game the way the game is suppose to be played, hard nosed and all out every pitch of every at bat. I still feel that your team either gets better or gets worse, it doesn't stay the same. With no notable moves in the off season other than the loss of Everett through free agency, the Twins will be contenders but may not have enough to make the playoffs without some trade deadline deals to improve.
CLEVELAND INDIANS (2008 record 81-81)
Key additions: SP Carl Pavano, RP Kerry Wood, 2B Mark DeRosa, 2B Luis Valbeuna, RP Joe Smith
Key losses: RP Jeff Stevens, OF Franklin Gutierrez
Unsigned Free Agents: RP Brendan Donnelly, SP Scott Elarton, C Sal Fasano, RP Juan Rincon
With the exception of the Kansas City Royals, the Indians have been the most active of any team in the Central. It is hard to feel bad for the Tribe after losing CC Sabathia to a trade deadline deal last year. All they did was have another pitcher win the Cy Young in Cliff Lee. If Pavano can regain any of the potential he showed before all his injury problems kept him on the DL during what seemed like the entire length of his contract with the Yankees, he may be the arm that Tribe fans have been waiting for to solidify the back end of the rotation. The signing of Wood makes the end of the game a lot less worrisome, especially with up-and-comer Jensen Lewis primed for a starring role in the bullpen along side Rafael Perez and Rafael Betancourt. The only question is whether or not the bats can light up the scoreboard like they did in 2007 or if they will stay colder than Bismark, ND (which had a temperate of -44 yesterday) like they did in 2008. If the lumber heats up, look for this group of Indians at the top of the standings.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS (2008 record 75-87)
Key additions: 3B Wille Bloomquist, RP Kyle Farnsworth, SP Horacio Ramirez, CF Coco Crisp, 1B Mike Jacobs
Key Losses: CF Joey Gathright, RP Leo Nunez, RP Ramon Ramirez, SP Tyler Lumsden
Unsigned Free Agents: SP Jairo Cuevas, 2B Mark Grudzielanek
KC looks like they are slowly but surely building a good baseball team. This is a long time coming for a team that has not been in the playoffs since they won the World Series in 1985. 23 years is a long time to start making the correct moves to improve the team, but Royals fans will take it. All of the new additions should have immediate impact on the level on play, and no one KC lost should be off great consequence, other than maybe Ramirez. The pieces are starting to fall into place, but the team in the powder blues are still a few years from being legit.
DETROIT TIGERS (2008 record 74-88)
Key additions: SS Adam Everett, C Gerald Laird
Key losses: RP Kyle Farnsworth, SS Edgar Renteria
Unsigned Free Agents: RP Casey Fossum, SP Freddy Garcia, RP Aquilino Lopez, SP Kenny Rogers
What happened to the Tigers? This is a team that prior to the 2008 season was all but in the World Series. Were it not for Seattle and Baltimore, this would have been the worst team in the AL, and they were the most disappointing. Injuries, inconsistency, a perceived lack of effort, and a ton of bad luck (see Joel Zumaya getting hurt playing Guitar Hero) doomed Detroit from the beginning. I don't see a playoff run for Motown, but this year should have them pointed back in the right direction and making life miserable for the rest of the American League Central.
My prediction for 2009
1. Indians
2. Twins
3. Tigers
4. White Sox
5. Royals
Sunday, January 11, 2009
2009 Predictions - AL East
Starting today, we will look and the upcoming Major League baseball season. I will go division by division, looking at each team based on their 2008 finish. At the end I will give my thoughts on how they will finish and who will be the Wild Card. Please keep in mind that not all free agents have been signed and there are sure to be trades between now and the beginning of the regular season.
AL EAST
TAMPA BAY RAYS (2008 record 97-65)
Key Additions: OF Pat Burrell, RP Joe Nelson
Key Losses: OF Rocco Baldelli, RP Trever Miller
Unsigned Free Agents: DH Cliff Floyd, DH Jonny Gomes, OF Eric Hinske
This team looks almost the same as the 2008 version that went to the World Series. If they do not add a big bat to replace Cliff Floyd, look for Burrell to be the DH. There are still options available in free agency to fill the role like Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, and Bobby Abreu. Given the Rays success by NOT signing the big free agent, I would bet on Burrell and the rest of the youngsters to do it on their own. Add the phenom David Price to the starting rotation and there is no reason that Tampa cannot stay on top of arguably the toughest division in baseball.
BOSTON RED SOX (2008 record 95-67)
Key Additions: OF Rocco Baldelli, SP Brad Penny, SP John Smoltz, RP Takashi Saito
Key Losses: C David Ross, OF Coco Crisp
Unsigned Free Agents: SP Paul Byrd, 1B Sean Casey, SP Bartolo Colon, SS Alex Cora, SP Curt Schilling, RF Mike Timlin, C Jason Varitek
The Red Sox did not finish second to Tampa Bay for lack of talent. The upstart Rays just plan outplayed the 2007 World Series Champions. With the signings of Penny and Smoltz, the Sox solidified their rotation, but didn't necessarily make it better by leaps and bounds. What will take Boston back to the top of the division will be better production from the core of the team and for the team to play with more heart. I like the intensity of closer Jonatahan Papelbon, the consistency of Kevin Youkilis, and the overall play of reigning AL MVP Dustin Pedroia. However, if Boston doesn't re-sign the heart and soul of this team, Jason Varitek, all the talent in the world won't help this team overtake supremacy of the East.
NEW YORK YANKEES (2008 record 89-73)
Key Additions: SP CC Sabathia, SP AJ Burnett, OF Nick Swisher, 1B Mark Teixeira
Key Losses: 1B Jason Giambi, SP Carl Pavano, SP Wilson Betemit, SP Jeff Marquez
Unsigned Free Agents: OF Bobby Abreu, RP Chris Britton, OF Justin Christen, C Chad Moeller
SP Andy Pettitte, SP Sidney Ponson, C Ivan Rodriguez
It looks like the days of the Yankees just throwing money at their problems are back in full force. The signings of Sabathia and Burnett look to have helped improve the biggest weakness in the Bronx by helping the rotation. But Burnett may be a one year wonder after finally having a season worthy of his hype in 2008. With the back end of the rotation still looking at using much heralded, but rarely successful, Phil Hughes, the Yanks had better hope that CC can win about 35 of his 40 starts (we all know he can do it if he wants) in order to erase the disappointment of missing the playoffs last year. This offense, with and focused A-Rod and Jeter coupled with the addition of Teixeria's big bat, looks like it could average 10 runs a game. And it may need to if the pitching doesn't live up to the expectations.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS (2008 record 86-76)
Key Additions: none
Key Losses: SP AJ Burnett
Unsigned Free Agents: SP John Parrish, OF Brad Wilkerson, C Gregg Zahn
For a team the finished in fourth place in 2008, one would think they would try to improve themselves in order to compete with the Rays, Sox, and Yanks. So far, the only big off season move made by the Blue Jays is not re-signing Burnett and watching on as he went to division rival New York. There are still a handful of free agents available that may help this team improve, but none that will vault them into contention right away. You can always count on pitching ace Roy Halladay winning 20 games and being in the conversation for the Cy Young award, and for the other pitchers to make fans wonder when Halladay's next start is. Last year's signing of BJ Ryan gave the Blue Jays a credible closer, but no one other than Halladay seems to be able to have a lead late enough in the game to use him (and Halladay likes to finish what he starts, so he doesn't use Ryan very often). Unless Toronto has a minor league stockpile of prospects ready to make an immediate impact, I don't see this group of birds flying any higher in 2009.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES (2008 record 68-93)
Key Additions: SP Mark Hendrickson, IF Cesar Izturis, IF/OF Ryan Freel, SP Koji Uehara
Key Losses: SP Daniel Cabrera, C Ramon Hernandez, C Lou Palmisano
Unsigned Free Agents: SS Alex Cintron, RP Lance Cormier, 1B Kevin Millar, OF Jay Payton
What we have here is a failure to improve quickly. The two biggest holes in the lineup from 2008 were at shortstop and in the starting rotation. The signing of Izturis will solidify the most glamorous spot in the infield for the O's. Freel is the type of hard worker that every young player on this team can look at to see how you are suppose to play the game, and he can play any where on the field or bat anywhere in the lineup and make this team better. And while Uehara is an unproven commodity in America, it looks to be a step in the right direction for a staff that had four of five starters with ERAs over 5.00 last season. So even though it seems that Baltimore has been rebuilding since Eddie Murruy, Cal Ripken Jr and Jim Palmer were leading them to the World Series title in 1983, this group is young and getting better, however is still probably a few years away from scaring any other team in the division.
My Prediction for 2009
1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. New York Yankees
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Toronto Blue Jays
AL EAST
TAMPA BAY RAYS (2008 record 97-65)
Key Additions: OF Pat Burrell, RP Joe Nelson
Key Losses: OF Rocco Baldelli, RP Trever Miller
Unsigned Free Agents: DH Cliff Floyd, DH Jonny Gomes, OF Eric Hinske
This team looks almost the same as the 2008 version that went to the World Series. If they do not add a big bat to replace Cliff Floyd, look for Burrell to be the DH. There are still options available in free agency to fill the role like Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, and Bobby Abreu. Given the Rays success by NOT signing the big free agent, I would bet on Burrell and the rest of the youngsters to do it on their own. Add the phenom David Price to the starting rotation and there is no reason that Tampa cannot stay on top of arguably the toughest division in baseball.
BOSTON RED SOX (2008 record 95-67)
Key Additions: OF Rocco Baldelli, SP Brad Penny, SP John Smoltz, RP Takashi Saito
Key Losses: C David Ross, OF Coco Crisp
Unsigned Free Agents: SP Paul Byrd, 1B Sean Casey, SP Bartolo Colon, SS Alex Cora, SP Curt Schilling, RF Mike Timlin, C Jason Varitek
The Red Sox did not finish second to Tampa Bay for lack of talent. The upstart Rays just plan outplayed the 2007 World Series Champions. With the signings of Penny and Smoltz, the Sox solidified their rotation, but didn't necessarily make it better by leaps and bounds. What will take Boston back to the top of the division will be better production from the core of the team and for the team to play with more heart. I like the intensity of closer Jonatahan Papelbon, the consistency of Kevin Youkilis, and the overall play of reigning AL MVP Dustin Pedroia. However, if Boston doesn't re-sign the heart and soul of this team, Jason Varitek, all the talent in the world won't help this team overtake supremacy of the East.
NEW YORK YANKEES (2008 record 89-73)
Key Additions: SP CC Sabathia, SP AJ Burnett, OF Nick Swisher, 1B Mark Teixeira
Key Losses: 1B Jason Giambi, SP Carl Pavano, SP Wilson Betemit, SP Jeff Marquez
Unsigned Free Agents: OF Bobby Abreu, RP Chris Britton, OF Justin Christen, C Chad Moeller
SP Andy Pettitte, SP Sidney Ponson, C Ivan Rodriguez
It looks like the days of the Yankees just throwing money at their problems are back in full force. The signings of Sabathia and Burnett look to have helped improve the biggest weakness in the Bronx by helping the rotation. But Burnett may be a one year wonder after finally having a season worthy of his hype in 2008. With the back end of the rotation still looking at using much heralded, but rarely successful, Phil Hughes, the Yanks had better hope that CC can win about 35 of his 40 starts (we all know he can do it if he wants) in order to erase the disappointment of missing the playoffs last year. This offense, with and focused A-Rod and Jeter coupled with the addition of Teixeria's big bat, looks like it could average 10 runs a game. And it may need to if the pitching doesn't live up to the expectations.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS (2008 record 86-76)
Key Additions: none
Key Losses: SP AJ Burnett
Unsigned Free Agents: SP John Parrish, OF Brad Wilkerson, C Gregg Zahn
For a team the finished in fourth place in 2008, one would think they would try to improve themselves in order to compete with the Rays, Sox, and Yanks. So far, the only big off season move made by the Blue Jays is not re-signing Burnett and watching on as he went to division rival New York. There are still a handful of free agents available that may help this team improve, but none that will vault them into contention right away. You can always count on pitching ace Roy Halladay winning 20 games and being in the conversation for the Cy Young award, and for the other pitchers to make fans wonder when Halladay's next start is. Last year's signing of BJ Ryan gave the Blue Jays a credible closer, but no one other than Halladay seems to be able to have a lead late enough in the game to use him (and Halladay likes to finish what he starts, so he doesn't use Ryan very often). Unless Toronto has a minor league stockpile of prospects ready to make an immediate impact, I don't see this group of birds flying any higher in 2009.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES (2008 record 68-93)
Key Additions: SP Mark Hendrickson, IF Cesar Izturis, IF/OF Ryan Freel, SP Koji Uehara
Key Losses: SP Daniel Cabrera, C Ramon Hernandez, C Lou Palmisano
Unsigned Free Agents: SS Alex Cintron, RP Lance Cormier, 1B Kevin Millar, OF Jay Payton
What we have here is a failure to improve quickly. The two biggest holes in the lineup from 2008 were at shortstop and in the starting rotation. The signing of Izturis will solidify the most glamorous spot in the infield for the O's. Freel is the type of hard worker that every young player on this team can look at to see how you are suppose to play the game, and he can play any where on the field or bat anywhere in the lineup and make this team better. And while Uehara is an unproven commodity in America, it looks to be a step in the right direction for a staff that had four of five starters with ERAs over 5.00 last season. So even though it seems that Baltimore has been rebuilding since Eddie Murruy, Cal Ripken Jr and Jim Palmer were leading them to the World Series title in 1983, this group is young and getting better, however is still probably a few years away from scaring any other team in the division.
My Prediction for 2009
1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. New York Yankees
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Toronto Blue Jays
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